FLUS44 KOUN 251147 HWOOUN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 647 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008 OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251700- HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE- ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM- WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND- POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN- COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON- CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER- WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY- 647 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. DISCUSSION... CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED MOISTURE AXIS AT MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING. WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF SHEAR...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAIN. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...SUCH THAT THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ENTIRE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY BRINGING DRIER AIR...AND WITH SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY RETURNING TO THE MID LEVELS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. PROBABILITY TABLE... VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY AUG 26. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW STORMS TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IT IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD THROUGH SUNDAY IS LOW. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... NONE. THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON TODAY. $$